8 october 2024 : A new study suggests humanity is nearing the upper limit of life expectancy. Despite advancements in medical technology, genetics, and increasing numbers of centenarians, researchers have found that life expectancy gains are slowing down, especially in countries with the longest-lived populations.
S. Jay Olshansky, lead author of the study from the University of Illinois-Chicago, emphasized that we must acknowledge the existence of a limit to human lifespan and rethink assumptions about retirement age and financial planning. Mark Hayward, a researcher from the University of Texas, agreed, stating that we are approaching a plateau in life expectancy, although a future breakthrough could potentially extend lifespan further.
The study tracked life expectancy data from 1990 to 2019 in countries known for long life expectancies, such as Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, and Switzerland. The U.S., despite not being in the top 40 for life expectancy, was included in the study due to its past bold projections about lifespan improvements.
The study found that life expectancy improvements were slowing, particularly in the U.S., where factors like drug overdoses, obesity, and healthcare inequities have taken a toll. The researchers also discovered that even if all deaths before age 50 were eliminated, life expectancy would still only increase by a small amount.
Olshansky and colleagues concluded that aging is the primary factor limiting further life expectancy improvements. While more people are living to 100, this is largely due to population growth, and the percentage of people reaching this milestone will likely remain under 15% for women and 5% for men in most countries.
