31 Aug 2026 Punjab Khabarnama Bureau : The Nifty 50 and Sensex were expected to open lower on Monday, August 31, as weak global cues, rising crude oil prices and renewed US-Iran tensions weighed on investor sentiment. GIFT Nifty was trading around 24,232, indicating a weak start for Indian equities.
GIFT Nifty Signals Weak Opening
GIFT Nifty was trading about 110 points below the previous Nifty futures close, pointing towards a gap-down opening on Dalal Street.
The negative signal came amid declines in Asian markets and weaker US equities, with investors concerned about higher interest rates and renewed geopolitical risks.
Nifty 50 Outlook
According to technical analysts, the 24,000 level remains a crucial support zone for the Nifty 50.
HDFC Securities’ Nagaraj Shetti said the index continues to trade in a broader 24,000–24,400 range. A sustained rebound from the lower end could push the index towards 24,300–24,400, while a decisive break below 24,000 could weaken the technical setup.
Another key level is around 24,150, where the index had broken below an ascending trendline in the previous week. A recovery above this area could improve sentiment.
Sensex Levels to Watch
For the Sensex, analysts identified 78,000 as an important intermediate resistance level, with the broader resistance zone around 78,400–78,600.
A decisive move above this resistance cluster could strengthen the possibility of a recovery, while continued weakness could keep the index under pressure.
Crude Oil Emerges as Major Risk
Rising crude oil prices are among the biggest concerns for Indian markets.
Brent crude climbed above $90 a barrel after fresh US-Iran military escalation, raising concerns about inflation, India’s import bill and pressure on the rupee.
For an oil-importing economy such as India, a sustained rise in crude prices can increase inflationary pressure and affect corporate margins.
Fed Rate-Hike Fears Add Pressure
Investor sentiment was also hit by growing expectations of a possible US Federal Reserve rate hike.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments pushed up Treasury yields and increased market expectations of a September rate hike. Reuters reported that the probability assigned by markets had risen to nearly 60%.
Higher US yields can reduce the attractiveness of emerging-market equities and put additional pressure on currencies such as the Indian rupee.
US-Iran Tensions in Focus
The latest escalation between the United States and Iran has added another layer of uncertainty.
US strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices higher, while Iran’s retaliation increased fears of further disruption to energy supplies and global shipping.
Markets will therefore closely monitor developments in West Asia during Monday’s session.
HDFC Bank, Reliance in Focus
HDFC Bank is likely to remain in focus after CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan decided not to seek another term. The stock had outperformed the broader market in pre-market expectations, with analysts viewing the leadership transition as a potential opportunity for a strategic reset.
Reliance Industries could face pressure because of changes to its MSCI weighting, which are expected to trigger fund-flow adjustments.
MSCI Rebalancing Could Increase Volatility
Monday also marks an important session for MSCI index rebalancing.
Changes involving stocks such as Adani Energy Solutions, Groww and Reliance Industries are expected to generate sizeable institutional flows, particularly towards the end of the trading session.
The impact on headline indices may be limited, but individual stocks could see sharp moves.