October 18, 2025 (Punjab Khabarnama Bureau) : India’s crude oil imports from Russia showed a marked resurgence in early October after a three-month decline, according to preliminary ship-tracking data from analytics firm Kpler. The rebound underscores the ongoing strength of Russian barrels in India’s energy mix despite mounting international pressure and logistical headwinds.
Import Trend Reversal
After falling from over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to about 1.6 million bpd in September, India’s Russian crude arrivals picked up in October, reaching around 1.8 million bpd. This uptick largely reflects Indian refiners ramping up throughput ahead of the festive season, utilising the steep discounts still available on Russian Urals‐grade and other sanctioned-friendly cargoes.
Why the Volume Fell Earlier
Volumes dipped during July–September due to routine refinery maintenance at key PSU plants, coupled with weaker refiners’ throughput and narrower discount spreads for Russian crude at that time. Kpler’s analysts note that many shipments arriving then had been locked in earlier, meaning the decline was more operational than policy-driven.
Strategic and Economic Drivers
Russian crude remains advantageous for Indian refiners thanks to its compatibility with domestic complex refining units and still meaningful discount over Middle Eastern grades. For FY 2025, Russia supplied about 88 million tonnes out of India’s roughly 245 million tonnes total — making up around 36% of India’s crude imports.
The rebound also comes amid higher fuel demand ahead of India’s major festivals, prompting refiners to secure additional cargoes to run at fuller capacity.
Geopolitical and Policy Context
India finds itself balancing Western diplomatic pressure – particularly from the U.S. – to reduce Russian oil purchases, with its own energy-security and cost-efficiency imperatives. Recent statements by U.S. officials and tariff threats underscore the sensitive nature of India’s Russian crude imports.
Despite this, Indian refiners and the external affairs ministry have signalled that any cut-back would be gradual and based on economics, not external diktats, suggesting Russian barrels will remain central to supply for the near term.
Implications Ahead
- Energy security: The resurgence supports refiners’ margins and fuel supply stability but raises questions about India’s dependence on a single source.
- Diplomatic optics: A continued high share of Russian crude amid Western sanctions may complicate trade and diplomatic talks with the U.S. and Europe.
- Refinery economics: Discounted Russian barrels enhance margins, but if refiners face forced diversification, procurement costs may rise and margins shrink.
- Market dynamics: The rebound suggests that despite sanctions and rhetoric, physical flows remain resilient. Tracking future months will show whether this trend can be sustained under regime changes and policy shifts.
Outlook
Analysts expect the volume to hold near the 1.7–1.8 million bpd range in the short term unless new sanctions bite or discount spreads shrink significantly. However, longer-term diversification remains a stated goal, with India exploring higher imports from the U.S., Latin America and Middle East, albeit at higher landed cost.
Summary
India’s Russian crude oil imports rebounded to about 1.8 million bpd in October after a three-month dip, driven by large discounts, milestone demand and refinery ramp-ups, says Kpler.