October 18, 2025 (Punjab Khabarnama Bureau) : India’s crude oil imports from Russia showed a marked resurgence in early October after a three-month decline, according to ship-tracking data from analytics firm Kpler. The rebound highlights the continuing strength of India’s energy ties with Moscow, even amid fluctuating discounts and mounting geopolitical pressures.
After reaching a record high of over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in early June, India’s Russian crude imports had slipped to about 1.6 million bpd by September due to refinery maintenance and narrowing price advantages. However, October data reveals a strong recovery, with shipments averaging around 1.8 million bpd — signaling that Indian refiners are once again turning to discounted Russian barrels to meet rising domestic fuel demand ahead of the festive season.
Kpler’s report attributes this rebound to a combination of seasonal and strategic factors. Refinery operations across India have returned to full capacity following maintenance shutdowns in August and September. Moreover, the onset of festival-related consumption in October, marked by increased mobility, freight activity, and industrial fuel usage, has driven refiners to secure additional cargoes to ensure adequate supply.
According to the data, India remains the largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude globally — ahead of China and Turkey — with refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), and Nayara Energy maintaining steady purchase volumes. Much of the supply continues to come via ship-to-ship transfers near ports in the Black Sea and the Suez Canal, allowing Indian refiners to blend and process different grades efficiently.
Why Imports Had Fallen Earlier
The decline seen between July and September was largely operational, analysts say. Several refineries had been temporarily shut for scheduled maintenance, leading to reduced intake. Additionally, discounts on Russian crude — particularly the Urals grade — had narrowed as global oil prices stabilized and shipping costs increased. Some Indian refiners also faced delays due to payment challenges linked to Western banking sanctions and currency conversion hurdles.
Despite those hurdles, the fundamentals of the trade remain strong. Russian oil continues to be priced lower than Middle Eastern or African grades, giving Indian refiners a cost advantage. “Russian barrels offer savings of $4–$6 per barrel compared to Brent-linked cargoes,” noted a Kpler analyst. “That margin makes a big difference in refining profitability.”
Economic and Strategic Significance
For India, which imports nearly 85% of its total crude requirement, diversifying supply sources is essential for energy security. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, India has taken advantage of discounted Russian crude to shield itself from volatile global prices. In fiscal year 2025 so far, Russia has accounted for roughly 36% of India’s total crude imports — up from just 2% before 2022.
Indian refineries have adjusted to processing a variety of Russian grades, including Urals, ESPO, and Arctic blends, which suit the configuration of domestic complex refining units. This adaptation has allowed India to refine Russian oil into gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel for both domestic use and exports.
The recent uptick also coincides with rising fuel consumption in India. The country’s petroleum demand reached an all-time high in September, supported by economic recovery, higher vehicle sales, and pre-Diwali industrial activity. Refiners are therefore replenishing stocks to meet strong seasonal demand.
Geopolitical Context and Western Pressure
India’s growing reliance on Russian crude has attracted scrutiny from Western nations, especially the United States, which has repeatedly urged New Delhi to align with global sanctions. However, Indian officials maintain that the country’s energy policy is driven by national interest. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has emphasized that India will continue to purchase oil from “wherever it is affordable and accessible.”
Recent remarks by international leaders, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, suggested that India might be pressured to curtail Russian imports. Yet, energy market analysts believe such a reduction is unlikely in the short term. “As long as discounts exist and supply chains remain steady, Indian refiners will prefer Russian cargoes,” said an oil market strategist with ICRA.
Impact on Refinery Margins and the Economy
The continuation of discounted Russian oil helps India keep domestic fuel prices relatively stable despite global market fluctuations. This has been critical for containing inflation and supporting industrial growth. Lower crude procurement costs translate into better refining margins, enabling public sector refineries to maintain profitability even during periods of high volatility.
However, analysts warn of potential risks. Over-dependence on Russian barrels could expose India to sudden supply disruptions or payment complications if Western sanctions tighten further. Additionally, logistical issues, such as insurance restrictions and tanker shortages, could affect future shipments.
Future Outlook
Industry forecasts indicate that India’s imports from Russia will likely remain above 1.7 million bpd through the rest of the year, barring major geopolitical disruptions. Some refiners are exploring alternate arrangements with Middle Eastern suppliers and the United States to maintain flexibility. Still, as long as Russian oil remains competitively priced, it is expected to retain a significant share in India’s import basket.
Energy experts say the long-term trend will depend on two factors: the evolution of global sanctions and the price differential between Russian and non-Russian crude. If the discount narrows further or shipping constraints intensify, refiners may diversify their sourcing mix. But for now, Russia remains a cornerstone of India’s import strategy.
The rebound in October serves as a reminder that market economics — rather than political messaging — continues to shape India’s energy decisions. As the world’s third-largest oil consumer, India must strike a delicate balance between cost-efficiency, energy security, and diplomatic neutrality.
Summary
India’s Russian crude imports rebounded to 1.8 million barrels per day in October after three months of decline, driven by festive demand, refinery ramp-ups, and continued price discounts, Kpler data shows.