20 august 2024 : Vice President Kamala Harris has encountered considerable challenges, as three recent polls reveal a difficult scenario in her campaign against former President Donald Trump for the presidency.
Two polls conducted in the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania indicate that Trump maintains a slight advantage over Harris, while a third national poll similarly shows her trailing the former president.
Recent surveys in Pennsylvania, a key swing state with 19 electoral votes, conducted by Cygnal and Emerson College, suggest that Trump is in the lead. A Cygnal poll carried out on August 14 and 15 among 800 likely voters indicates Trump is ahead by one point, with 44% to Harris’s 43%. This poll also shows Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%, with Trump gaining 2% since the last Cygnal poll in July and Kennedy dropping 4%.
In addition, Emerson College’s poll of 1,000 likely voters in Pennsylvania, conducted on August 13-14 for RealClearPennsylvania, also found Trump leading by one point, garnering 49% of the vote compared to Harris’s 48%. When undecided voters leaning toward a candidate were included, Trump’s lead increased to 51% against Harris’s 49%. Including Kennedy in the poll resulted in a tie between Harris and Trump at 47%, with the independent candidate receiving 3%.
Trump leads Harris in national polling
On a national level, a survey by Napolitan News Service conducted by RMG Research from August 12-14 among 2,708 likely voters revealed Trump leading Harris by one point, with 46% to her 45%. When undecided voters leaning toward a candidate were accounted for, Trump’s lead expanded to 49% against Harris’s 47%. This marks a change from the previous RMG poll, which had both candidates tied at 49%.
Harris had initially been viewed as the presumptive nominee for the Democrats following President Joe Biden’s announcement on July 21 that he would withdraw from the race and endorse her. “Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump,” Biden stated. This temporarily boosted Harris’s popularity in national polls.
The Cygnal poll also gave mixed numbers to Democrats in the commonwealth’s upending race — sitting senator Bob Casey led his challenger Dave McCormick of Republicans 46-42 percent. But Casey fared worse than a ‘typical’ Democrat Senate nominee, losing 2 points among all the voters and 8 points among Democrats only.