June 3 (Punjab Khabarnama) : As the exit polls 2024 indicated a massive mandate for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha election 2024, the opposition claimed it to be rigged and motivated and cited past examples of how exit polls are not exact polls and got it wrong.
Bihar assembly election 2020
Exit polls in 2020 predicted that Mahagathbandhan led by Tejashwi Yadav would sweep the assembly election in Bihar in 2020. With 139-161 seats in Bihar, the grand alliance was speculated to get a comfortable majority in the election. In the actual result, the NDA got a majority and the Mahagathbandhan was confined to only 110 seats.
Axis My India, one of the exit poll agencies known for their perfection, issued a statement admitting their mistake in gauging the public mood. The mistake was a learning experience to hone technique without any excuse, the company said.
West Bengal assembly election 2021
Exit polls predicted that the BJP was going to win the West Bengal assembly election 2021 following a close fight with incumbent Trinamool Congress. In the actual result, Trinamool bagged 213 seats out of 284 and the BJP won 77 seats.
There are other examples of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election 2017, the recent 2023 election in Chhattisgarh, Delhi assembly election 2015 where the exit polls were not quite right but an example which is being frequently cited is the 2004 Lok Sabha election. The Congress is confident that 2024 will be a repetition of what happened in 2004.
What happened in the 2004 Lok Sabha election?
The exit polls in 2004 predicted that the NDA led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was going to form the government with a comfortable victory of 240-275 seats. The UPA won 216 seats and the NDA won 187 seats.
How an exit poll can go wrong?
Exit polls are based on what the voters said as they exited the poll booth. One of the most important factors is the sample size.